How many satellites are currently planned for low Earth orbit (LEO)? 10,000? 100,000? 500,000? 1,000,000? 10,000,000? The answer is higher than you might expect in terms of filings with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU)… the real question is: how many will actually launch into orbit?

I gave a presentation about all of this at the SPACE Research Group session at the recent IETF 126 meeting in Vienna. I’ll share some links and more info below.

[Side note: I have some work travel in Australia next week: Canberra (August 17-19) and Brisbane (August 20-22). My schedule is tight but if you are in those areas, please feel free to reach out (see contact info at end) and say hello. I always enjoy connecting with readers and maybe a coffee/tea/drink might be able to be squeezed in somewhere!]

Millions of LEO Satellites

The SPACE Research Group is part of the Internet Research Task Force or “IRTF” that meets alongside the Internet Engineering Task Force, or IETF. The IETF produces the open standards for the protocols that make the Internet work (things like HTTP, DNS, SMTP, TLS, etc.) and the IRTF focuses on research into Internet-related topics that are farther out on the horizon.

“SPACE” of course in the IETF/IRTF way is actually an acronym for “Systems and Protocol Aspects for Circumstellar Environments”… but you can think of it as “the place for research about outer space” within the IRTF.

The SPACE RG session at the 126th meeting of the IETF in Vienna, Austria, included a range of research papers and topics for discussion.

My presentation was up first – and was titled “Beyond Starlink: Understanding the Coming Waves of LEO Satellite Deployments“. My point was to ensure researchers and others were aware of the absolutely INSANE number of filings with the ITU that have been going on over the last couple of years.

My slides are available online. And you can watch my presentation (it’s about 15 minutes):

One note – I had an error in my slides. On slide 8 for AST SpaceMobile, I put “~100” for the number of planned satellites. The actual number filed was 248. I’m not quite sure how I made that error… but it’s there.

One key point to understand – when a provider like SpaceX wants to launch more satellites, they go through a process like this (it varies by country – read more):

• The provider files a request with the regulator in the country in which they are based noting the frequencies they want to use for uplink and downlink connectivity. In the US, this is the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) as this relates to spectrum.
• The national regulator then approves (or not) the filing, and then, if approved, files that info with the ITU to reserve the spectrum usage and communicate the orbit info (heights, inclination).
• The provider then has seven years to launch their first satellite, and after that launch, they then must get 10% launched within 2 years, 50% in 5 years, and 100% by 7 years. If they fail to do so, they theoretically lose their claim on that spectrum reservation. (Although their national regulator can grant them an extension, as the FCC recently did for Amazon.)

So the constellations that I was talking about are in various stages of filing and deployment. Some like Starlink’s first constellation are obviously already in space. Their subsequent constellations have been filed with the FCC and ITU, and some have launched while others are just ideas at this point.

And Even MORE …

And of course my slides were outdated even as I posted them with regard to the number of satellites launched. I think SpaceX launched another 60 or 100 satellites between the time I submitted the slides and when I presented them! 🤯

But of course they MUST launch more satellites because the LEO satellites only have a lifespan of about 5 years! So they pretty much always have to “always be launching!”

Additionally, there were at least two other filings since the time of my talk:

• Amazon filed to launch 5,105 satellites for “direct-to-device” connectivity – this will be in addition to all the other satellites they have filed for within their existing “Leo” constellation. This looks to be a result of their acquisition of Globalstar, an existing LEO provider, who already has some available spectrum.
  
• The EU is expanding IRIS2 from 282 to 348 satellites, adding 66 more into LEO. Note that none of the IRIS2 satellites have launched yet and the EU is planning for the constellation to start operating in 2029.

There were undoubtedly some other filings since my talk, too, that I just haven’t seen yet.

A key site I use to keep track of the madness is Jonathan McDowell’s Planet 4589 site, specifically:

• List of mega-constellations (>1000)
• List of large constellations ( 50 – 1000)

He’s been doing amazing work for years to track what is going on!

And it was HIS numbers that led me to the number of planned satellites at the end of my presentation:

• 2,345,078 🤯🤯🤯

But Will All These LEO Constellations Happen?

That’s the big question! The reality is that there is NOT ENOUGH LAUNCH CAPACITY right now to even remotely get all these satellites into orbit!

SpaceX is the only company that has been launching consistently and at a fast cadence. There’s a launch company in China that is getting more frequent. Rocket Lab is another company trying to do more (and they just bought the Iridium LEO constellation!). The longstanding launch companies of Arianespace and United Launch Alliance (ULA – a combination of Lockheed and Boeing) are still stuck in a transition to their new rockets. The startup Blue Origin is working to get back into space after a recent explosion.

There’s a whole other article that I’ll write about this at some point…

My own answer is… NO, I don’t think even half of these constellations will actually make it into LEO!

But we’ll see… and even if only half, or even a quarter, get into space, it will be MORE satellites than we have EVER had!

Stay tuned!

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The Passing of Om Malik

In my last AVFTCN 041 back on June 6, one of the “3 weekend longreads about the future of the Internet” was from Om Malik with his brilliant post about “Say Hello to the Internet of AI“.

I didn’t know it then – few people did – but Om was writing that post and many other posts from a hospital bed while he was dealing with some issues related to his heart. He passed away on June 24, 2026. 😢 I wrote a reflection on why he mattered to me – and what he did for all of us:

• R.I.P. Om Malik – Connector of Dots Extraordinaire

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Bringing Back The Podcast! (And looking for guests..)

I have been so missing working with audio! I just love the medium and I enjoy talking with people and bringing stories in audio form. After 420 episodes, my “The Dan York Report” has been on an extended hiatus – and I want to change that!

I have a whole huge list of ideas… and I am working on carving out the time to make that happen. I also have some wonderful new toys tools for interviews such as these amazing Hollyland Lark A1 bluetooth mics! I’m looking forward to sitting down with some of the amazing people I meet and bringing you their stories.

If you would be interested to be interviewed, send me a note about why we should talk! Drop an email back to me (or ping me on Mastodon or LinkedIn).

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A “Crow’s Nest” Monthly Video Call?

I’ve still been giving a LOT of thought about building communities and connecting with others of similar interests. I’m thinking about the idea of doing a monthly video call (probably using Zoom) for a casual conversation where people could share what kind of emerging technologies they are currently interested in. *IF* I were to set something like that up, would you be interested? Drop an email back to me to let me know (or ping me on Mastodon or LinkedIn).

[The End]

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Recent Presentations, Posts and Podcasts

Content I’ve published and produced recently on my personal sites:

• (nothing)

Content I’ve published for the Internet Society (who has no connection to this newsletter):

• (nothing)

Recent presentations or panels I’ve been part of (see full list):

8 June 2026	DNSSEC & Security Workshop (session moderator) at ICANN 86 in Saville, Spain
9 June 2026	Regulatory Trends on DNS Resilience Affecting ccTLDs (panel) in the ICANN 86 ccNSO session in Saville, Spain
19 July 2026	Open Fibre Data Standard (OFDS) – mapping the terrestrial Internet in the HotRFC Lightning Talks at IETF 126 in Vienna, Austria
21 July 2026	Beyond Starlink: Understanding the Coming Waves of LEO Satellite Deployments in the SPACE Research Group at IETF 126 in Vienna, Austria

In the current plans I expect to be at ICANN 87 in October in Bali, Indonesia, and at IETF 127 in November in San Francisco, if any of you will be at either of those.

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Thanks for reading to the end. I welcome any comments and feedback you may have.

Please drop me a note in email – if you are a subscriber, you should just be able to reply back. And if you aren’t a subscriber, just hit this button 👇 and you’ll get future messages.

This IS also a WordPress hosted blog, so you can visit the main site and add a comment to this post, like we used to do back in glory days of blogging.

Or if you don’t want to do email, send me a message on one of the various social media services where I’ve posted this. (My preference continues to be Mastodon, but I do go on others from time to time.)

Until the next time,
Dan

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Connect

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Disclaimer

Disclaimer: This newsletter is a personal project I’ve been doing since 2007, several years before I joined the Internet Society in 2011. While I may at times mention information or activities from the Internet Society, all viewpoints are my personal opinion and do not represent any formal positions or views of the Internet Society. This is just me, saying some of the things on my mind.