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  • AVFTCN 029 – Sunday Smorgasbord: Humane AI Pin, LEOs, Livestreaming Wikipedia editing

    5:03 am

    Greetings from basement isolation. The dog has been let out and I’m back here in the dark. Instead of a specific topic, I want to catch up on some updates to past newsletters. So today’s note is a collection of smaller updates of different flavors. I’ll call it a smorgasboard, which of course Wikipedia has more info about than you probably ever cared to know! 😀

    Now on to some updates about Humane’s Star Trek communicator pin, LEO satellites, streaming on Twitch, and more…

    Humane’s AI Pin – the reality

    While I wrote about how Humane’s AI Pin seemed to be getting us closer to the Star Trek (TNG) communicator, the Verge’s Victoria Song pointed out that a wearable device needs to … well… wearable! She noted that so many of the images show the pin being worn on outerwear .. but what happens when you go inside or want to take off that layer? And what are you going to wear it on in warmer climates or in summer weather?

    She points out that it weighs about as much as a tennis ball! (Probably the batteries.🤦‍♂️) And she points out how it will “drag” down a T-shirt or anything like that. She also notes that the current device has no water resistance – and also that we aren’t yet to the point of having social norms around talking to your devices.

    (Although I wonder if we are starting to get there… recently I’ve been around people who have quickly talked to their phones or watches to add a reminder or perform some action.)

    Meanwhile, over on Business Insider, Jyoti Mann writes about how the AI Pin won’t help you message your friends faster:

    • A video shared on X shows it took a user  “6 pinches and 15 hand wiggles” to send a message. 
    • It took them 21 seconds to send the suggested text. 

    … with the comparison that this could have been done far faster on a smartphone.

    Now some of this critique is just natural. You have a hyped-up launch… and then… no one can actually use one yet… so people will pick apart what they can. Part of it also is that we don’t really know how it might – or might not – fit into our daily lives. The use cases being discussed NOW might turn out not to be the common uses. And if it does have use, we’ll develop social norms around the use.

    A number of years back if you saw someone walking along the road or a sidewalk seeming to be having a very animated conversation with themselves, we might have thought they had some mental health issues. Today we more often look to see if they have an earbud in and are in the middle of a voice call! 🤦‍♂️

    And I completely agree with Victoria Song on the size. It’s going to need to be smaller and lighter before it might take off widely. (Just like VR goggles need to get smaller and lighter like the visor of Geordi La Forge on Star Trek:The Next Generation … hmm… noting a theme here.. 😀)

    She makes a really good point about outerwear, too. Of course in the fictional world of ST:TNG, the crew of the Enterprise was pretty much always in the Enterprise where they wore their uniforms, on which the communicator was fixed. Or if they went on a planet they seemingly never needed coats or spacesuits. So outerwear wasn’t an issue.

    [Interestingly, I was thinking back to Babylon 5, my personal favorite sci-fi series of the 1990s, and their similar “link” bonded to the back of your hand (by some process that I never understood but hey… fiction!). Being on the hand, it didn’t have the issue of dealing with outerwear (which they did actually use!) or dragging down garments. Again, Victoria Song points out that wearables need to be wearable in many situations.]

    It will be curious to see where this all goes. I think it’s great that Humane is exploring a new form factor. I expect we’ll see more commentary in 2024 when people actually start using them.

    Sometime, before I leave this world, it would be fun to tap a device like this and call someone. (My initial temptation, of course, would be to say “Beam me up, Scotty!” even though I know that’s from the wrong Star Trek series! 😀)

    Use of AI systems with Internet infrastructure?

    Do any of you have good pointers to articles or research about various AI technologies being used either improve or disrupt Internet, network, and communications infrastructure?

    I’ve seen mention of machine learning (ML) being used to optimize routing. Also seen mention of AI used for improving security (defense) – and improving attacks.

    Anyone have good pointers to info about those kind of things? (And other ideas?) I’ve been doing searches, but it’s hard because of massive AI hype. Just curious for some research that I’m doing.

    On a completely different topic about AI… if you have been following all of the OpenAI leadership drama over the past few weeks, Molly White (of “Web3 Is Going Just Great” fame) published a newsletter this morning about the difference between “effective altruism” and “effective acceleration” and how, ultimately, both are turning out to be more of the same.

    LEO satellite systems and SpaceX launching

    If you want to learn more about low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites like SpaceX’s Starlink, Eutelsat OneWeb, and Amazon’s Project Kuiper, I co-wrote a deep dive into the topic with Geoff Huston of APNIC in the September issue of the Internet Protocol Journal. Starting on page 31, it goes into great technical detail on a number of points. It’s a great companion to the Internet Society’s LEO perspectives document that provides a higher-level view.

    Please do share the article with others who you think should know more about LEO systems for Internet access.

    I also learned a lot from the “Introduction to 5G” article that was the first half of the IPJ edition.

    Back on November 3, I wrote about SpaceX being the only launch provider consistently launching rockets. To that point, since the beginning of November, SpaceX has launched 8 rockets (not including their Starship launch). Of those:

    • Five were Starlink launches
    • One was a resupply mission to the International Space Station (which is in LEO)
    • One was a “Transporter” mission that was a “rideshare” for small satellites. 90 payloads were deployed into LEO, out of which 110+ satellites were expected to be deployed.
    • One was a launch of the final two O3b mPower satellites for medium Earth orbit (MEO) that SES needs to be able to provide almost-global Internet connectivity.

    Eight production launches in about 3.5 weeks, plus the experimental Starship launch – no one else right now is capable of matching that launch cadence! Truly amazing work from the SpaceX teams. And so we as a society will continue to be so reliant on SpaceX until someone else can reach that kind of pace.

    Streaming Wikipedia editing to Twitch

    Back during the height of the pandemic when we were all stuck in our homes, I decided I wanted to dive deeper into Wikipedia editing (where I’ve been an editor for 19+ years)… and I also wanted to play with streaming to Twitch. So.. I started livestreaming my Wikipedia editing to Twitch! Every. Single. Day. 😀 For well over a year.

    I haven’t done that streaming that much lately, but I’ve started getting back into it. If that sounds like something you’d like to see, you are welcome to follow me on Twitch to be notified when I do.

    If on the other hand that sounds about as exciting as watching paint dry.. well… I completely understand! 🤣

    In all seriousness, though, if you ever have questions about Wikipedia in general, please feel free to email or otherwise contact me. It’s a personal passion of mine and I’m always glad to talk about all thing Wikipedia!

    WebSummit: How to stop the Internet from unravelling

    Finally, if you have 23 minutes, this video of a WebSummit panel includes Andrew Sullivan, President & CEO of the Internet Society (my employer) and Sally Costerton, Interim President and CEO of ICANN, tackling questions around Internet shutdowns, regulating the Internet, fragmentation, and how we need to protect and defend the way that the Internet actually works, versus the simplistic way that some policymakers would like it to work.

    P.S. If you like what you hear from Andrew, we’re hiring at the Internet Society and Internet Society Foundation.


    Thanks for reading to the end. I welcome any comments and feedback you may have.

    Please drop me a note in email – if you are a subscriber, you should just be able to reply back. And if you aren’t a subscriber, just hit this button 👇 and you’ll get future messages.

    This IS also a WordPress hosted blog, so you can visit the main site and add a comment to this post, like we used to do back in glory days of blogging.

    Or if you don’t want to do email, send me a message on one of the various social media services where I’ve posted this. (My preference continues to be Mastodon, but I do go on others from time to time.)

    Until the next time,
    Dan


    Connect

    The best place to connect with me these days is:

    You can also find all the content I’m creating at:

    If you use Mastodon or another Fediverse system, you should be able to follow this newsletter by searching for “@crowsnest.danyork.com

    You can also connect with me at these services, although I do not interact there quite as much (listed in decreasing order of usage):


    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer: This newsletter is a personal project I’ve been doing since 2007, several years before I joined the Internet Society in 2011. While I may at times mention information or activities from the Internet Society, all viewpoints are my personal opinion and do not represent any formal positions or views of the Internet Society. This is just me, saying some of the things on my mind.

  • AVFTCN 028 – Let’s Not Forget the Magic of the Internet

    6:23 am

    It is so easy to get so used to how the Internet works*, that sometimes we forget to pause and just think about how amazing this technology can be. We just expect that it will work – and for the most part it does.

    I’m had some experiences this week… and plenty of time to think… that reminded me about how magical the Internet can be at times.

    * – for those of us privileged enough to have appropriate levels of affordable Internet connectivity. About 1/3 of the world still has NO connectivity, and some % who have connectivity available.. cannot afford it.

    Why? Well… because I’ve been doing what so many other people have done – isolating because of testing positive for COVID-19. 🙁 Yes, indeed, after 1,350 days of being COVID-free (since the time of the WHO pandemic declaration), the day before US Thanksgiving I tested positive. It was not a huge surprise since my wife had been sick on the previous weekend and then tested positive on Sunday.. but we were hoping that I and our 14yo daughter would stay negative. Our daughter still IS negative, and so our focus is on keeping her that way. So my wife is staying in our second-floor bedroom, and I’m down in our basement. Our 14yo is spending most of her time in another room away from us.

    We are all fully vaccinated and boosted, including with the latest shot, and so far I’ve had very few symptoms – just a runny nose and occasional sneeze. I’m hoping it stays that way!

    But in the meantime.. how do you communicate when you are all isolating from each other? For, you know, things like planning meals or dealing with other household activities?

    The answer these days is of course a group chat, or, when it’s a bit more involved… a group video call… using any of the many messaging / communication services.

    Being DEEP down the Apple rabbit-hole as a family, we’ve just been firing up Apple FaceTime calls between the three of us, with people answering on their mobile or laptop depending upon what is most convenient.

    And it works.

    Boom… after we all accept we can be speaking from different parts of our house about whatever we need to discuss.

    But have you thought about HOW this video communication actually works?

    Back in the early 2000s, I was a product manager at Mitel Networks in Canada and at one point was responsible for the video conferencing products. Later, video was being added into “softphone” products, and I learned an incredible amount from various IETF working groups that worked to make this all work – securely – through a wild number of network configurations.

    This stuff is *HARD* to do right!

    And while Apple uses a bunch of proprietary technology, some of it is known to be based on open standards – and also there are just certain ways that video communication works. (Side note: that Wikipedia article could use some help – if you know about FaceTime and want to edit it, updates would be welcome!)

    Each time one of the three of us launches a FaceTime call, a whole bunch of connections get made:

    • A control connection using Apple Push Notifications (APN)
    • An identity connection (to also share encryption keys)
    • Multiple video streams (I’m assuming… the usual model is to have one sending and one for receiving from each participant)
    • One or more audio streams (unless that is in the video)
    • Potentially additional supporting data streams
    • And all of this is encrypted, which adds additional layers of Transport Layer Security (TLS) and other encryption technologies. (See this page about FaceTime security to dive deeper)

    All of that… for every single FaceTime call!

    And… they have to do it in a way that navigates the MANY possible ways of connecting, with almost always network address translation (NAT) being involved, and often NAT at an ISP level (i.e. carrier-grade NAT / CGNAT). And connecting from mobile networks, WiFi, other technologies.

    And… what makes it wilder is that in the case of the three of us here in the same house doing a group call, we’re doing all that three times!

    Although the good news is that the actual video and audio streams should be staying local if we are all on the same WiFi network. If we’re not (I’m a networking geek – we have multiple WiFi networks!), those media streams are going out to Apple’s infrastructure and then coming back into our home network. (Thankfully we have a high speed connection!)

    One one level, with so many variations, it’s amazing that this even works!

    (But of course Apple has spent thousands and thousands and thousands of staff hours making it work.)

    And… all of this complexity is INVISIBLE to the regular user. I just hit the button to call my wife and… ta da… we’re talking from two different floors of our house. I hit another button and our daughter is looped in.

    It just works.

    Back in the 1960s, Arthur C Clarke articulated three laws, of which the third was:

    Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” – Arthur C Clarke

    On one level, I think this kind of video communication does get into the magical area. You push buttons. People appear and you can talk them in real-time with usually no real lag / latency.

    It’s magic!

    It’s the stuff that was only possible in sci-fi novels or TV shows when I was growing up. It’s amazing.

    Except… of course… we (with appropriate connectivity) have gotten SO used to it that it’s lost any “magic” and just become “mundane”.

    We don’t even think about it anymore.

    We just EXPECT it to work.

    And most of the time… it does.

    And when it does not, we get very cranky and grumpy very quickly.

    We expect to be able to make video calls. We expect to be able to order food and have it arrive at our door 20 or 30 minutes later. We expect to be able to share incredibly large image files with the 37 other people in the group chat we are in. We expect to be able to order something online and have it delivered within a day or two. We expect… We expect…. We expect…

    Any “magic” is sadly gone.

    Still … amidst the chaos and madness of our regular lives… amidst all the expectations we have now for how things should “just work”…

    … I hope we can pause occasionally and just reflect for a moment on how amazing these experiences can be. What we can do… what we can learn… how we can communicate… how we can earn money… what we can create… how we can collaborate… how we can connect with each other…

    Jump back 40 years and show these experiences to someone of that time and, yeah, they’d definitely think of them as *magic*!

    (And then, yes, after that brief moment of reflection… you can get right back to cursing the application because it tells you your connection in unstable or because there’s a slight lag to one person’s video or whatever…🤣)


    Thanks for reading to the end. I welcome any comments and feedback you may have.

    Please drop me a note in email – if you are a subscriber, you should just be able to reply back. And if you aren’t a subscriber, just hit this button 👇 and you’ll get future messages.

    This IS also a WordPress hosted blog, so you can visit the main site and add a comment to this post, like we used to do back in glory days of blogging.

    Or if you don’t want to do email, send me a message on one of the various social media services where I’ve posted this. (My preference continues to be Mastodon, but I do go on others from time to time.)

    Until the next time,
    Dan


    Connect

    The best place to connect with me these days is:

    You can also find all the content I’m creating at:

    If you use Mastodon or another Fediverse system, you should be able to follow this newsletter by searching for “@crowsnest.danyork.com

    You can also connect with me at these services, although I do not interact there quite as much (listed in decreasing order of usage):


    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer: This newsletter is a personal project I’ve been doing since 2007, several years before I joined the Internet Society in 2011. While I may at times mention information or activities from the Internet Society, all viewpoints are my personal opinion and do not represent any formal positions or views of the Internet Society. This is just me, saying some of the things on my mind.

  • AVFTCN 027 – The Paywalling of the Web

    5:03 am

    Is the future of the Web really one where so much of the content is behind a paywall or a registration screen? (some call it a “regwall”) Are we returning to the pre-Internet days where so much information was locked away in gated “walled gardens” of online activity such as CompuServe, AOL, Prodigy, Delphi, etc.?

    Each morning after our dog wakes me up sometime between 4:30 and 5:00am, I let her out in the backyard to do her thing… and then I start my morning scan of news. Over the last 15 years or so I’ve found that I’ve come to value the curation of Gabe Rivera’s teams and so I start out with Memeorandum for general news and politics, and then Techmeme for tech news and sometimes go to MediaGazer for media news.

    My frustration that has been growing over the past five years or so is that so many mainstream news sites are locking their content behind paywalls or regwalls.

    When I go to Memeorandum I’ve come to know that I just should not bother clicking the link if it is from the Washington Post, the Atlantic, the New York Times, Bloomberg, Wired… and even sometimes Reuters.

    And it’s not just news sites… I’ve pretty much given up reading Cory Doctorow’s latest articles when he initially posts them because he goes to Medium first, which won’t let me read his articles without a subscription. (In his particular case, I can wait a few days and get it on his blog.) I’ve come to just ignore the email messages Medium sends me because pretty much all the articles now either require login or payment.

    And this is why I moved this newsletter from Substack over to WordPress. Increasingly so many Substack newsletters I was reading would let you read a page or so… and then you have to pay.

    Even here on WordPress.com, they actively promote that you should use them for a newsletter because you can charge for content:

    Earn with your work
    With gated content and paid subscriptions.

    I could add in some blocks and set it all up so that you all had to pay to read this morning missives.

    Good journalism is expensive

    Look… I get it!

    It’s incredibly expensive to do good journalism correctly.

    And the advertising model that initially propped up so many media sites completely evaporated in the wake of Craigslist and Facebook Marketplace for classifieds, and the move of so many people to social media to discover news (read about the latest stats out this week).

    I’ve read so many of the reports and articles about what’s happening in the media industry. I get it.

    It’s an incredibly hard problem to solve.

    And so I don’t begrudge news sites in putting up paywalls to try to pay their reporters. For them it’s a return to the pre-Internet model where you had to pay for a subscription or buy a copy at a newsstand.

    And with all the zillions of layoffs in the media industry, I don’t begrudge all the many individual reporters who have set up their own Substack or other newsletter so that they can attempt to continue their reporting and independently make a living.

    I get it. I understand.

    But … what is the end game?

    But how does this all end? I don’t know about you all, but I simply can’t subscribe separately to EVERY media site and newsletter that I want to read. (Nor do I want to register on every single site so they can track me.) $20 here, $20 there… and sooner or later you’re spending hundreds of dollars. It’s just like all the zillion video streaming services asking for us to subscribe to each of them.

    It just doesn’t work for most people.

    Will we see more “bundling”? Which is basically what Medium is doing with their “Members-only” – pay a fee and get access to all the writers who contribute members-only articles.

    Will we see more of a return to the “information services” of old where only those who could afford to pay would be able to see the good articles? (And those who could not afford to do so would not.)

    Or what?

    The crazies don’t put up paywalls

    My additional concern is that the folks who don’t care about “good journalism” don’t put up paywalls. The conspiracy theorists, the fringe groups, the extremists of all political views, the anti-vaxxers, the climate change-deniers, the anti-science people.

    Disinformation and misinformation is freely available for everyone. No paywalls. No regwalls.

    THAT content is what can get found in search engines. THAT content is what will get indexed by generative AI systems… and then regurgitated as “fact” by the very plausible and authoritative large language models.

    Good content behind paywalls… misinformation without.

    Over time I see this further eroding the trustworthiness of the Web. (That is admittedly already eroded.)

    The answer is… ?

    I don’t know. I know it’s NOT the utter stupidity of the Canadian government’s failing attempt at a “link tax”. (And that’s a topic for another day…)

    But I’m not sure that the realistic answer is paywalls (“subscriptions”). How many can the average user afford?

    What do you think?

    All I know is that with every paywall or regwall … the Web, and the broader Internet… seem… a… little… less… open… 😢


    Thanks for reading to the end. I welcome any comments and feedback you may have.

    Please drop me a note in email – if you are a subscriber, you should just be able to reply back. And if you aren’t a subscriber, just hit this button 👇 and you’ll get future messages.

    This IS also a WordPress hosted blog, so you can visit the main site and add a comment to this post, like we used to do back in glory days of blogging.

    Or if you don’t want to do email, send me a message on one of the various social media services where I’ve posted this. (My preference continues to be Mastodon, but I do go on others from time to time.)

    Until the next time,
    Dan


    Connect

    The best place to connect with me these days is:

    You can also find all the content I’m creating at:

    If you use Mastodon or another Fediverse system, you should be able to follow this newsletter by searching for “@crowsnest.danyork.com

    You can also connect with me at these services, although I do not interact there quite as much (listed in decreasing order of usage):


    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer: This newsletter is a personal project I’ve been doing since 2007, several years before I joined the Internet Society in 2011. While I may at times mention information or activities from the Internet Society, all viewpoints are my personal opinion and do not represent any formal positions or views of the Internet Society. This is just me, saying some of the things on my mind.

  • AVFTCN 026 – Humane’s “AI Pin” gets closer to the Star Trek:TNG Communicator

    5:09 am

    From 1987-1994, Star Trek: The Next Generation (ST:TNG) brought an updated version of the classic show to our TV sets. Through my later years in university and first years out on my own, I tuned in each week to see the latest saga of Captain Picard, Commander Riker, Data, Worf, Deanna Troi, Geordi LaForge, the Crushers, and so many more.

    Set 100 years after the original Star Trek series (aka “ST:TOS”), there were many advances in the fictional technology. One that captivated me (and probably many others) was the evolution of the “communicator” from a handheld device like a mobile phone… into a “badge” that was worn on your left breast.

    You simply tapped on the badge and a whole realm of possibilities opened up. You could ask the computer for any information you needed. You could locate someone. You could call someone. It could serve as a universal translator between languages. It could do so many things!

    It was so cool… and I always wanted one!

    Over the years, several companies have made versions of a “communicator badge” that were Bluetooth devices that could connect to your phone. Essentially a wireless microphone/speaker that worked with your phone. They were cool… but you still needed your phone.

    Enter Humane’s AI Pin

    Until last week…

    .. when a company called Humane launched their “AI Pin” device.

    MANY articles have been written about it (and even more .. and still more).

    At a high-level, the basics are that it is a $700 device that you wear on your chest or lapel and you speak to it … basically like that Star Trek:TNG communicator!

    For a $24/month subscription, you have access to various services that it can perform, including responding to questions, playing music, doing translations, summarizing info, etc.

    Additionally, it has a camera that can record images or video. An example they give is holding up a food and asking “can I eat this?”

    It connects to all sorts of AI-related services, and uses large language models (LLMs) and natural language processing (NLP) to help with the voice interaction.

    Plus, it has this cool laser display system that can project information onto your hand, and also allow to perform other gestures.

    If you have 10 minutes, their launch video is interesting:

    (And yes, loads of people have commented negatively about the video in articles … but regardless, it provides an overview.)

    You just tap on it and start talking to it.

    No separate phone required.

    Now, it does require connectivity, and they mention that they have partnered with T-Mobile here in the USA. Each device has its own phone number and data connectivity. Effectively, it is a “phone” device as far as T-Mobile is concerned, even though it may never actually make a “phone” connection, doing everything over the data connection instead.

    Always-on Connectivity

    Which is, of course, given who I work for, one of the first things I thought about this device.

    It will ALWAYS need Internet connectivity.

    It can apparently do a few things in the device itself… but not much. Those earlier Bluetooth “Star Trek Communicator” devices needed the phone to be in range in order to do anything. The phone was the device that actually executed actions.

    Similarly, if you use an Apple Watch or other similar smartwatch, you again need a phone in range for it to fully perform all its functions.

    With this AI Pin, the devices need the network to be able to connect back to Humane’s servers and services. Otherwise you are just wearing a piece of metal and plastic on your shirt.

    I do wonder how well this will work in many places.

    I live in northwestern Vermont where our mobile connectivity is challenging outside of major roadways and our “urban” areas. (Our Vermont definition of “urban” may be different than yours! 🤣) You don’t have to drive far to find places with only very limited connectivity – or none at all.

    But perhaps the main place these will be used will be urban areas, or within enterprises or other denser locations.

    Or… if you look at the deal between T-Mobile and SpaceX… perhaps once they get the regulatory approval to launch new Starlink satellites that can provide “direct-to-mobile” connectivity, then these AI Pins will benefit from that other layer of connectivity. (Stay tuned… there are many steps before this can happen – and you can guarantee rivals will fight SpaceX every step of the way, so we may not see it for several years.)

    The key point is that the AI Pin will always need connectivity – and presumably decent connectivity – to connect to its various AI services.

    Subtracting functionality for a simpler interface

    If you think about it – and this is a point Humane makes in its various presentations – we keep on subtracting functionality from our devices in a quest for the ultimate simple and minimal user interface.

    Some of us can remember the ginormous mainframes and their terminals… which became mini-computers… which became desktop computers… which became laptop computers… which became smart phones… which became smartwatches and other wearable devices…

    At each step, we’ve continued to remove user interface (UI) functionality. I’m writing this post on an iPad, which has less of a UI than my MacBook Pro laptop. I spend a lot of time interacting with people using my iPhone, which has a similar UI to the iPad, but just a smaller screen. I can also interact with people using my Apple Watch, which has an even more minimal UI.

    The AI Pin takes this minimal interface so much farther. No screen at all (well… on the device… it can project via the laser thing). Really no UI on the device at all. Just tap it to do something.

    Are we ready for voice-only?

    Which raises the question – are we ready for a voice-only interface?

    Maybe.

    The past several years have been training us all… between Amazon’s Alexa, Apple’s Siri, Google’s Assistant, and all the others… we’re getting used to voice commands. How many millions of Amazon Echo devices are out there? (Side note… how many are actively being used?)

    I think it’s also a generational thing. I’m a cranky old GenXer who deliberately DISABLES voice systems on all my devices. And I’ve only put one Amazon always-on-surveillance-device Echo in our house (where the primary use is to play music).

    But I watch my 14yo daughter and how she interacts with systems. She uses Siri all the time on her iPhone. And using it, she can look up things far faster than I can type them into a search box. (Yes, we’ve of course raced each other.) She uses it on her laptop, and she uses voice all the time to interact with the Echo in so many ways.

    My teenage daughter’s generation thinks nothing whatsoever of talking to devices.

    The technology and systems have come so far since the ten years I spent in the voice-over-IP world back in the 2000s and early 2010s.

    And with all the developments in AI systems, the voice interaction systems are so much better. It’s truly remarkable.

    But… AI.. and accuracy?

    But wait… how accurate can AI systems be? What about all the times when LLMs completely make up information?

    Yes, this is a major issue.

    In a completely shocking lack of fact checking, the Humane folks produced and published their launch video with a blatant error from their LLM. They asked the AI Pin when is the next solar eclipse and where is the best place to view it.

    The system answered correctly that the next total solar eclipse is April 8, 2024. But it then answered falsely that the best place to see it would be Exmouth, Australia, and East-Timor.

    Screenshot from the Humane AI Pin launch video showing the two founders wearing black standing in front of a table with their devices on it. On the right side this the text in green “The next total solar eclipse will occur on April 8th 2024. Best places to see it are Exmouth, Australia, and East-Timor.”

    🤯

    How do I know this is not accurate?

    Because the part of Vermont where I live is directly in the path of the April eclipse! (In fact, some organizations are seizing on the opportunity to rent out homes to people who will visit us to watch the eclipse. 🙂)

    The SF Gate site figured out that these names were the best places to see the 2023 eclipse. 🤦‍♂️ (They also pointed out that later in the demo when he uses the camera to figure out the amount of protein in some nuts, the amount is significantly off!)

    🔥🔥 MAJOR FAIL 🔥🔥

    And it blows my mind that someone would not have fact-checked something as major as this launch video. 🤯

    Be that as it may, there is a huge amount of work happening to make these systems more accurate. Over time I think they will improve – it’s just a question of how much time that will take.

    (And a point that right now would NOT be a good time for anyone to wear one of these if they need live-saving data!)

    Privacy?

    My other major concern is of course privacy. All this data is being transmitted from this AI Pin device up to various cloud services provided by different vendors.

    Om Malik had a lengthy interview with Humane co-founder Imran Chaudhri where he specifically asked about privacy concerns. Chaudhri answered about how privacy and data protection were critical elements of their approach. And that this was in fact why they are only having limited partners initially – because they have very specific privacy and data protection requirements.

    He spoke about people being in control of their own data, and about partitioning data so that even the company doesn’t have access.

    I have no doubt that this is part of their core values… today.

    But what if their company fails … or is bought by another bigger company for whom privacy is not a core value?

    I know people with a Fitbit device who are greatly concerned about what Google is doing now that they own Fitbit. (And Google is in fact phasing out Fitbit in some parts of the world and pushing people to move to their Pixel devices.)

    I do worry about how private any device like this can be in the long term.

    Will I get one?

    Not yet. But… I won’t rule it out.

    First, the $700 is a bit steep for me to just have a device to play with – and I don’t really feel like adding another $25/month (or whatever it is with taxes).

    Second, I don’t know that I could trust the info coming out of it yet. The blatant errors in their demo show that it’s not ready for major usage yet.

    Third, privacy. Privacy, privacy, privacy. There’s a reason I disable voice systems on my devices. 😀

    Fourth, there just aren’t that many services yet. That will come, but right now there’s not enough for my frugal Vermonter personality to justify the cost.

    BUT… if someone gave me one as a Christmas gift, I’d definitely play with it to see how it works! 🤣

    I can see the promise and the potential.

    I mean… I watched 7 years of ST:TNG… and then ST:Deep Space Nine… and then all the other Star Trek series that had this kind of device.

    I have wanted something like this for the last 35 years! 😀

    We’ll see.

    Will this AI Pin device actually prove to be useful? Will it be the launch of a new way for users to interact?

    Or will it fail and just be yet-another-exciting-device-that-winds-up-dead-in-a-drawer?

    I don’t know. I do know that it’s exciting to see something like this with a new form factor and services.

    I look forward to seeing what Humane does with it… and if there are other companies and services that join in with this type of device.

    Meanwhile… this went on far longer than I expected… and I need to go drop off my daughter at school and start my work day!


    Thanks for reading to the end. I welcome any comments and feedback you may have. What do YOU think about this kind of device? Would you get one?

    Please drop me a note in email – if you are a subscriber, you should just be able to reply back. And if you aren’t a subscriber, just hit this button 👇 and you’ll get future messages.

    This IS also a WordPress hosted blog, so you can visit the main site and add a comment to this post, like we used to do back in glory days of blogging.

    Or if you don’t want to do email, send me a message on one of the various social media services where I’ve posted this. (My preference continues to be Mastodon, but I do go on others from time to time.)

    Until the next time,
    Dan


    Connect

    The best place to connect with me these days is:

    You can also find all the content I’m creating at:

    If you use Mastodon or another Fediverse system, you should be able to follow this newsletter by searching for “@crowsnest.danyork.com

    You can also connect with me at these services, although I do not interact there quite as much (listed in decreasing order of usage):


    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer: This newsletter is a personal project I’ve been doing since 2007, several years before I joined the Internet Society in 2011. While I may at times mention information or activities from the Internet Society, all viewpoints are my personal opinion and do not represent any formal positions or views of the Internet Society. This is just me, saying some of the things on my mind.

  • AVFTCN 025 – Mozilla, Mastodon and the Fediverse – and also Pebble

    5:18 am

    When I climb up into the crow’s nest and look out at the horizon, one of the “lands of opportunity” I continually see is the world of “decentralized social media”, and in particular Mastodon and the other services that use the ActivityPub protocol and are broadly referred to as the “Fediverse”.

    For context, I first joined Mastodon back in 2016 when Twitter was going through one of its various crises. You can still find me there today, primarily at danyork@mastodon.social but also with accounts on a couple of other servers.

    Part of what I value about the Fediverse is that you are not at the mercy of the whims of billionaires (ex Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg) or large “platforms” and corporations (ex Google). You are in control.

    In fact, you can be completely in control if you want to operate your own server. And if you don’t want to take that on, you can choose from many different servers – and you can easily move between servers should you wish to do so.

    And when the big started about a year ago after Elon Musk purchased Twitter and started making many changes, many others started flowing over here to Mastodon and the many other services that make up the Fediverse.

    But it hasn’t all been “a bed of roses” as we might say here in the USA. Many people found the Fediverse confusing and not welcoming. Many were looking for the centralized, simple service like Twitter. (Hence the current interest in Threads and BlueSky, which deliver a centralized experience.) Erin Kissane wrote an excellent critique at: Mastodon Is Easy and Fun Except When It Isn’t.

    Which brings me to Mozilla.

    As noted in this TechCrunch article – “Why Mozilla is betting on a decentralized social networking future” – Mozilla is seeking to see how they can help. This is not new “news” … they announced back in December 2022 that they were going to be joining the Fediverse. And those of us watching have seen the emergence of “Mozilla.social” in May, and we also saw the job ads and more.

    What intrigues me is that Mozilla is very mission-based, and has the ability to proceed slowly and thoughtfully to “do things right”. They aren’t pressured to hit quarterly advertising sales targets, etc.

    The article, based on an interview with Mozilla’s Carolyn O’Hara, states:

    the company is aiming to tackle some of the obstacles that have prevented users from joining and participating in the fediverse so far, including the technical hurdles around onboarding, finding people to follow and discovering interesting content to discuss.

    And those ARE some of the major challenges!

    They mention creating a “Discover” feed to help people find interesting things. Intriguingly, they mention working with publishers to see if more of them can start publishing in Mastodon and the Fediverse.

    This, to me, has been one of the things lacking in the Fediverse. There certainly are a number of publishers and media sites… but they are so far just a small fraction of the number of media that used to be – and in many cases still are – on Twitter.

    Anything Mozilla can do to help bring more of that kind of news content will be welcome! That is so much of what some of us look for in addition to the conversations and connections.

    To that end, I’m also intrigued by what they talk about for enabling the creation of smaller communities – and in general in encouraging a place for civil discourse.

    We’ll see! I’ve joined the waitlist, and you can, too.


    On a related note, as I briefly mentioned in an example in yesterday’s message, I read a fascinating “post-mortem” analysis of what happened with the Pebble social network that launched as a Twitter competitor and then ultimately had to shut down. It’s very interesting and I strongly encourage anyone interested in these kind of services to give it a read.

    The interesting part is that some members of the the community that developed on Pebble are now exploring coming together on a Mastodon instance, pebble.social.

    This is another example of the power of decentralized social networks – you are in control. And if you want to set up a new server to bring together a community… you have the power to do so!


    Thanks for reading to the end. I would welcome any comments and feedback you may have.

    Please drop me a note in email – if you are a subscriber, you should just be able to reply back. And if you aren’t a subscriber, just hit this button 👇 and you’ll get future messages.

    This IS also a WordPress hosted blog, so you can visit the main site and add a comment to this post, like we used to do back in glory days of blogging.

    Or if you don’t want to do email, send me a message on one of the various social media services where I’ve posted this. (My preference continues to be Mastodon, but I do go on others from time to time.)

    Until the next time,
    Dan


    Connect

    The best place to connect with me these days is:

    You can also find all the content I’m creating at:

    If you use Mastodon or another Fediverse system, you should be able to follow this newsletter by searching for “@crowsnest.danyork.com

    You can also connect with me at these services, although I do not interact there quite as much (listed in decreasing order of usage):


    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer: This newsletter is a personal project I’ve been doing since 2007, several years before I joined the Internet Society in 2011. While I may at times mention information or activities from the Internet Society, all viewpoints are my personal opinion and do not represent any formal positions or views of the Internet Society. This is just me, saying some of the things on my mind.

  • AVFTCN 024 – A long walk-through of using WordPress’ “Jetpack AI Assistant”

    4:06 am

    Jenna (our 16yo miniature poodle) didn’t get the memo about the time change. Can someone remind me why we do this again?

    I was going to write about Mozilla and their plans with Mozilla.social this morning… but in trying out WordPress as a platform for a combined newsletter and blog, well… there’s something bright and shiny in the interface… WordPress’ experimental “AI Assistant”. A quick tap and there’s a block added to the WordPress editor that offers a chat interface, along with a warning:

    A warning box in WordPress that says:

AI Assistant (Experimental)

Elevate your content creation with our AI-powered Gutenberg Block, offering seamless customization and generation. Bear in mind that, as an evolving tool, occasional imprecision may occur. Your feedback is valuable in our commitment to refine and improve this feature

    Well, okay, time to play! This feels like the kind of exploration I should livestream to my Twitch account, but it’s 5:00am and other people are asleep in my house – and would you really want to see me at this time?

    Maybe I will another time, but right now, the prompt beckons! Let’s see what we can do with this.

    A dialog box with the text inside that says “Ask Jetpack AI”

    [For those unfamiliar with WordPress terminology, “Jetpack” is the set of extra features that Automattic makes available outside the core WordPress functions and features.

    Also, the rest of this message is a long walk-through of me experimenting with different AI prompts with then a summary at the end. If you are not interested in generative AI tools and what they can – or cannot – do…. well, you might want to just move on to your next email. 😀]


    Writing a post

    First prompt: “write 3 paragraphs about the capabilities of Jetpack AI”

    [Note: I am adding “Begin AI Text” and “End AI Text” separators for the purposes of this post. The tool itself just inserts the text directly in the post. There’s no way you could know what is or is not AI-generated. Well… except that the text below is completely different from my style! 🤣]

    —— Begin AI Text ——

    Jetpack AI, the experimental AI-powered Gutenberg Block offered by WordPress, brings a plethora of capabilities to enhance content creation. First and foremost, it offers seamless customization and generation, enabling users to elevate their writing to new levels. Whether you need assistance brainstorming ideas, organizing your thoughts, or shaping the overall structure of your content, Jetpack AI is there to lend a helping hand. Its advanced algorithms analyze your input and offer insightful suggestions to improve the quality and coherence of your writing.

    Furthermore, Jetpack AI excels in generating content tailored to your needs. With its text generation capabilities, you can effortlessly create engaging introductions, compelling conclusions, or captivating anecdotes. Need to fill in the gaps or expand on a particular topic? Jetpack AI can generate coherent paragraphs that seamlessly integrate with your existing content, saving you time and effort. By harnessing the power of artificial intelligence, Jetpack AI empowers content creators with a versatile tool that enhances their writing process.

    Moreover, Jetpack AI encourages feedback and continuous improvement. As an evolving tool, occasional imprecision may occur, but the team behind Jetpack AI is committed to refining and honing its capabilities. Your feedback is invaluable in the quest to enhance the accuracy and efficacy of the AI assistant. By actively engaging with users, Jetpack AI aims to fine-tune its algorithms and provide an increasingly reliable and efficient content creation experience. With its endless potential and commitment to improvement, Jetpack AI is undoubtedly a game-changer in the world of content generation.

    —— End AI Text ——

    Well, okay, that’s a bit over the top in terms of marketing text, i.e. “undoubtedly a game-changer”, but hey, it got me my 3 paragraphs.

    My newsletter is now done! Well, no, but I suppose it could be if I just wanted to spew out content. 🙁

    For those curious, the Jetpack AI tool generates the text in a box and then offers you the chance to accept it or send in another prompt.

    A dialog box with the text of my prompt and then a “send” and “accept” button over on the right side.

    After you press “Accept” the text is just inserted into the post.

    Let’s try something else…

    Translations

    Second prompt: “write 50 words in German about Jetpack AI Assistant”

    —— Begin AI Text ——

    Jetpack AI Assistant, der experimentelle AI-gesteuerte Gutenberg Block von WordPress, bringt eine Vielzahl an Fähigkeiten mit, um die Content-Erstellung zu verbessern. Mit seinen fortschrittlichen Algorithmen und Textgenerierungsfunktionen ermöglicht Jetpack AI nahtlose Anpassungen und hilft dabei, qualitativ hochwertigen und zusammenhängenden Text zu generieren. Eine bahnbrechende Unterstützung für Autoren und Blogger.

    —— End AI Text —-

    Not bad! The marketing is still strong but then again, I *am* asking about the product. (And if you don’t know German, it’s essentially a summary of the English text earlier, just with those beautiful ginormously long words that German has. I mean… “Textgenerierungsfunktionen”!! )

    This could be interesting if you wanted to have a multilingual newsletter, or inject some content in another language.

    Summary of a article

    So let’s see if it can reach out to the current web. Just this morning I was reading a “lessons learned” post about the attempt to create a Twitter replacement called first T2 then Pebble. Let’s see how it does.

    Prompt: Summarize https://medium.com/gabor/from-t2-to-pebble-the-rise-challenges-and-lessons-of-building-a-twitter-alternative-553652f1d1e7 in 5 bullets

    —— Begin AI Text (with my emphasis added) ——

    • The article discusses the journey of creating a Twitter alternative called T2 and later Pebble.
    • It highlights the challenges faced during the development process.
    • The article explores the rise and fall of the project, shedding light on its lessons learned.
    • Various aspects of building and maintaining a social media platform are discussed.
    • The author seeks further research and information in the area of creating alternative social media platforms.

    —— End AI Text ——

    Interesting. Super high level and kind of bland, but 4 of the 5 bullets are reasonably accurate. The fifth bullet is wrong. Unless I’ve missed it (keeping in mind it is early and I haven’t finished my first cup of tea), I don’t see that anywhere in the article. The author doesn’t say that he’s seeking further research or info. He’s reporting on what they did.

    So this is that “occasional imprecision may occur” that was warned about in the block error message.

    Otherwise known as “completely making stuff up” 🤣

    The key points, though, are that:

    • The “Jetpack AI Assistant” has access to the current web.
    • It can do summaries

    Summary of an article in another language

    So… what about summarizing an article in another language?

    Prompt: “Summarize https://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/web/mark-zuckerberg-meta-chef-erleidet-kreuzbandriss-beim-kampfsporttraining-a-3ab86c12-de99-497f-850c-85939daef734 in English in 50 words”

    —— Begin AI Text —-

    Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta, sustained a knee injury, specifically a torn cruciate ligament, while practicing mixed martial arts. The incident occurred during his training session and has raised concerns about his physical well-being. The injury may potentially impact Zuckerberg’s ability to carry out his duties as the head of the company.

    —— End AI Text ——

    🤣 Well, okay, it’s a summary… but it completely misses the point of the article! Specifically that Mark Zuckerberg will have to delay the much-hyped (and never scheduled) fight with Elon Musk.

    Oops… that’s kind of the reason someone at Spiegel wrote this click-bait piece! 🤦‍♂️

    And that last sentence, “The injury may potentially…”, is not anywhere in the article. Granted, my German is a bit rusty… but I don’t get that sense at all. I mean, it is a logical conclusion to draw, and it’s true – the injury may impact Zuckerberg’s ability to do his job – it’s just not mentioned in the article. The text is all about him not being able to do his fight with Elon Musk.

    Well, I hope Mark Zuckerberg does get better, but meanwhile, let’s try a PDF…

    Summary of a PDF

    So… there’s a public PDF that I know very well. Let’s see how it does on the Internet Society’s 2022 document about Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites.

    Prompt: Summarize https://www.internetsociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Perspectives-on-LEO-Satellites.pdf in 5 bullets

    —— Begin AI Text (with my emphasis added) ——

    • The document provides perspectives on Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites.
    • It discusses the benefits and challenges of deploying LEO satellites for internet connectivity.
    • The document explores the role of LEO satellites in bridging the digital divide and providing internet access to remote areas.
    • It highlights the potential of LEO satellites in supporting emerging technologies such as Internet of Things (IoT) and 5G.
    • The document emphasizes the need for collaboration among stakeholders to address regulatory, technical, and governance issues related to LEO satellite deployment.

    —— End AI Text ——

    Again, okay for a high level and rather bland summary. As an editor I would probably merge the first two bullets. I also would not have so many bullets that start with “The document…”

    But for someone who hasn’t read the 16-page PDF, it does get the overall gist of the document.

    Except, of course, for the fourth bullet which is completely made up!

    I know for a fact (and just double-checked with a search in the PDF) that we never mentioned 5G anywhere in the document. Not even in footnotes. I did the final edits on the doc, so I know it extremely well.

    And, we only mentioned IoT in passing twice. We certainly do NOT “highlight” the potential of LEO satellites to support IoT and 5G. It’s perhaps a logical thing that could be included based on info that the large language model (LLM) has in its data, but it’s not in THIS article.

    Total FAIL on that bullet point. 🤦‍♂️

    So let’s see what else this can do…

    Create an article outline

    Let’s say that I want to use this to help generate ideas for how to structure an article.

    Prompt: “Create an outline for an article about the 5 biggest cities in Vermont”

    —— Begin AI Text ——

    • Introduction

      • Briefly introduce Vermont as a state known for its natural beauty and charming towns.
      • Mention the significance of exploring the urban side of the state by delving into its five largest cities.
    • City 1: Burlington

      • Provide an overview of Burlington as the largest city in Vermont.
      • Highlight key features, such as Lake Champlain, the Church Street Marketplace, and the vibrant arts scene.
      • Discuss the city’s thriving food and craft beer culture.
    • City 2: South Burlington

      • Introduce South Burlington as Burlington’s neighboring city and the second-largest in Vermont.
      • Discuss the city’s suburban charm and family-friendly atmosphere.
      • Highlight attractions like the University Mall and the Red Rocks Park.
    • City 3: Rutland

      • Describe Rutland as the third-largest city known for its rich history and heritage.
      • Expound on its architectural gems, such as the Chaffee Art Center and the Paramount Theatre.
      • Discuss Rutland’s outdoor recreational opportunities, including nearby ski resorts.
    • City 4: Barre

      • Discuss Barre as a unique city known for its granite industry and artistic traditions.
      • Explore the famous Rock of Ages granite quarry and the Vermont Granite Museum.
      • Highlight the city’s vibrant art community, with its numerous public sculptures and art galleries.
    • City 5: Montpelier

      • Present Montpelier as the capital and the smallest of the five cities.
      • Discuss its historical significance as the only state capital without a McDonald’s.
      • Highlight attractions like the Vermont State House and the artsy downtown area.
    • Conclusion

      • Summarize the unique characteristics of each of the five largest cities in Vermont.
      • Encourage readers to explore and appreciate the diverse experiences that these urban centers offer in the midst of Vermont’s natural beauty.

    —— End AI Text ——

    Wow! Okay, that’s not bad! That’s a decent framework for writing an article about our five largest cities. (Keeping in mind that this IS Vermont, so our definition of a “city” is a bit smaller than other places.🙂)

    And it had never occurred to me that Montpelier doesn’t have a McDonalds. I’m not sure that rises to the level of “historical significance” but hey, I guess that’s a point you could use. (And I’ll note that there IS a McDonalds just over the Montpelier line in Barre, VT, about 8 or 9 minutes from the downtown, so it’s not like people in Montpelier can’t get their Big Macs if they want them!)

    But overall that seems a decent outline. I don’t see anything blatantly false.

    What else can this thing do?

    My tea is getting cold and I realized that while I had paid attention a while back when Jetpack AI Assistant was released, I hadn’t actually read what they said it can do, so let’s check it out: https://jetpack.com/ai/

    What else did I not try in this post today?

    • Help create forms, tables and lists (hmm… this could be useful!)
    • Improving the quality and clarity of your text
    • Generating text in different tones, including “Formal, Optimistic, Emphatic, Passionate, or Humorous”
    • Generate ideas for titles and headings

    I think I have the “free” version and so it says I have access to these features:

    • Quota of 20 requests
    • Prompt based content generation
    • Generate text, tables, and lists
    • Adaptive Tone Adjustment
    • Superior Spelling and Grammar Correction
    • Title & summary generation

    Ah, and from reading the FAQ this is 20 requests, period. After that you have to upgrade to use it more. So I am already 7 requests toward that limit. (The 6 in this article plus one more I did.) Now, I *am* on the hosted WordPress.com service and so I don’t know if that limit applies but maybe it does.

    Regardless, if I found this AI Assistant useful, the upgrade is only $8.33/month (i.e. $100 / year.)

    Final Thoughts

    So.. after all these tests, what do I think? Would I use it? Would I pay?

    It’s been fun to play with this morning – something entertaining for a Sunday morning while drinking tea.

    I think my answer is … I don’t know.

    I could see the benefit if I was more frequently creating content. If I needed to create daily posts, or multiple posts per day, I could see it being useful.

    I do like the “create outline” exercise I did above. That provided a decent structure and points to think about. And… in developing the article I would discover if any points of the outline were false.

    I think that is my one concern with this – and all the other generative AI tools – the fact that completely made-up information is presented plausibly and authoritatively.

    Someone who never read the LEOs PDF I referenced might understandably think that we highlighted the uses of IoT and 5G – neither of which we actually did.

    In the warning I mentioned at the beginning, Automattic warns that “occasional imprecision may occur”. But this isn’t a case of not being precise, it is outright falsehood. Again, no mention of 5G at all in the document.

    I worry that people in a hurry or just looking to slam out content will just use this kind of text without any checking… and the trustworthiness of the Web will decline a bit more as bogus information gets circulated.

    Now, this isn’t an issue unique to the JetPack AI Assistant, it’s across pretty much ALL of the generative AI tools.

    And Automattic does warn you from the start, and each time you press the “Accept” button, there is a line below that that says “Automatically generated content may be inaccurate or biased.”

    Automattic also flags this AI assistant block as “Experimental” and notes that the tool is “evolving”.

    You are definitely warned.

    But many will just blindly plunge ahead because the convenience is so real and it’s so incredibly easy.

    Regardless, I can see the potential here. Just as we’ve grown used to autocorrect (and joke about the occasional mishap), I suspect we’ll grow use to having these kind of tools around and over time they’ll just become part of our daily workflow.

    And I’m sure the tools WILL evolve and get better. We’ve already seen great leaps in capabilities over the past year. We’re really still in the early days of people seeing what these LLMs are truly capable of.

    For my part… well… I guess I have 13 more queries before I have to start paying, so I’ll probably experiment some more. 🙂


    Yikes… this was a long one! If you read this far I hope you found it interesting. I would be very curious to know:

    • What do YOU think about this tool?
    • Where could you see yourself using it? (Are you already using it?)
    • Have you incorporated another AI tool in your own workflow?

    Drop me a note in email – if you are a subscriber, you should just be able to reply back. And if you aren’t a subscriber, just hit this button 👇 and you’ll get future versions.

    This IS also a WordPress hosted blog, so you can visit the main site and add a comment to this post, like we used to do back in glory days of blogging.

    Or if you don’t want to do email, send me a message on one of the various social media services where I’ve posted this. (My preference continues to be Mastodon, but I do go on others from time to time.)

    And yes, this was totally something I should have streamed to Twitch… maybe I still will, and use these examples and then explore some of the things that I didn’t dive into. Follow me over there if you want to know if I go live and do this.

    Still wondering about why we need to do this time change,
    Dan

    P.S. As I started the “Publish” process, I noticed in the sidebar that the AI Assistant can “Check for mistakes and verify the tone of your post before publishing”. Not something I’m going to do for THIS post, but maybe I’ll do that for future posts or the Twitch stream.

    A dialog box that says “AI Assistant” at the top and the text “Check for mistakes and verify the tone of your post before publishing” and then a “Generate feedback” button.

    Connect

    The best place to connect with me these days is:

    You can also find all the content I’m creating at:

    If you use Mastodon or another Fediverse system, you should be able to follow this newsletter by searching for “@crowsnest.danyork.com

    You can also connect with me at these services, although I do not interact there quite as much (listed in decreasing order of usage):


    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer: This newsletter is a personal project I’ve been doing since 2007, several years before I joined the Internet Society in 2011. While I may at times mention information or activities from the Internet Society, all viewpoints are my personal opinion and do not represent any formal positions or views of the Internet Society. This is just me, saying some of the things on my mind.

  • AVFTCN 023 – What WILL happen with all the LEO satellites burning up in the atmosphere?

    5:19 am

    What’s going to happen when 25+ satellites are burning up in our upper atmosphere EVERY DAY? In a really weird bit of synchronicity, after sending out my message yesterday where I ended saying that the environmental effects of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites was an entirely separate conversation… I was scrolling through Mastodon and the very first posts I saw were on this topic! 🤔 They pointed to these articles:

    The first is a Scientific American article from July 2022 that points to the concerns around all the rocket stage that fall back to Earth after delivering their satellites and burn up in the upper atmosphere.

    But wait, you say… SpaceX has re-usable rockets!

    Yes, they do, and that’s both amazing and awesome on so many levels. But that is only for the first stage that lifts the payload into space. The next stage that carries the satellites up to their orbit and deploys them is not reusable.

    The second article is from last week on October 24, 2023, and gets to the question that I have – what is the effect of all these satellites burning up in the upper atmosphere?

    This was one of the questions we had in 2022 at the Internet Society when we developed a paper about using LEO satellite systems for Internet access. And it’s one that concerns me greatly.

    Let’s do a little math.

    With the current filings at the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), it is very possible that, if all the providers can get their satellites launched (see yesterday’s piece), within 5 years we could see 40,000 – 90,000 satellites in LEO.

    Pretty much all of those will only have a 5-year lifespan before they run out of fuel and need to “de-orbit” and burn up in the upper atmosphere. LEO constellation operators are going to be constantly launching new satellites to replace the ones reaching end-of-life.

    For the sake of simplicity, let’s just say there are 50,000 satellites in LEO and at some point the launch cadence may level out so that in any given year 10,000 satellites across all the constellations will be falling out of the sky each year.

    10,000 / 365 = roughly 27 satellites re-entering the atmosphere EACH DAY!

    Every day… 27 more shooting stars to possibly be seen by someone.

    (Just work with me on this, okay… I do realize there is no way it will happen so evenly. The reality is that the de-orbiting will probably be lumpy with some days having many and others just a few or none. But look, it’s before 6:00am and I want to keep this example simple, okay?)

    Is this okay? Can our upper atmosphere absorb all this without a problem? Or will this in fact cause other problems?

    The second article above points to a research article in the journal PNAS that dives into this:

    The summary at the top is useful:

    Measurements show that about 10% of the aerosol particles in the stratosphere contain aluminum and other metals that originated from the “burn-up” of satellites and rocket stages during reentry. Although direct health or environmental impacts at ground level are unlikely, these measurements have broad implications for the stratosphere and higher altitudes. With many more launches planned in the coming decades, metals from spacecraft reentry could induce changes in the stratospheric aerosol layer.

    It’s an interesting read that admittedly went beyond my own understanding (ex. I did not actually know “niobium” and “hafnium” were elements… they sound more like something someone would say in Star Trek!). But in reading through it was intriguing to read about the different metals used in satellites and rockets. It was also fascinating to read about the methods the researchers are using to collect the data.

    The “Discussion” section at the end gets into the researchers views on possible effects. They outline several different potential effects on particles in the upper atmosphere.

    But the “plain language” summary of what effect this may have on our planet could be summarized as:

    WE DON’T KNOW!

    Which seems to be a common thread in other articles and research I’ve seen so far.

    We’re engaged in a grand experiment that may in fact provide ubiquitous global Internet access and truly connect the unconnected and bring connectivity to everyone… it has amazing potential… but what will be impact to our planet and climate?

    If you are looking for a research area, I would say this is a VERY good one to study.

    And… if you know of research in this area, please send it to me! I would love to gather more info around all of this.

    If this newsletter is about climbing up into the crow’s nest and looking out at the horizon with a spyglass, this topic seems like it could be a pretty big iceberg looming out there – and it would be good to understand more about exactly how big it is, or not.


    On a different note, if you are interested in tracking the whole area of “launch providers” that I talked about in yesterday’s message, I *HIGHLY* recommend the “Rocket Report” From ArsTechnica. It’s one of the newsletters I actually open and read every time I get it. Reporter Eric Berger and his expanding team have great info about all sorts of different kinds of rockets.

    Until another day when our dog will inevitably wake me up early again,
    Dan

    P.S. Wait.. you have just received 3 editions of this newsletter in 3 days! That’s more than I have published in some years! Is this a trend? I don’t know… I’m trying out this whole “write a newsletter after the dog wakes you up at 5:00am instead of doomscrolling on social media” thing. It may work… it may fade away. This may be the last one you see from me for a couple of years. 😀 Or maybe it may change to weekly or monthly. We’ll see. It’s all an experiment. And if this is FAR TOO MUCH EMAIL FROM DAN YORK and you want to unsubscribe, I totally get it. Thanks to all of you who are here reading this!


    Connect

    The best place to connect with me these days is:

    You can also find all the content I’m creating at:

    If you use Mastodon or another Fediverse system, you should be able to follow this newsletter by searching for “@crowsnest.danyork.com

    You can also connect with me at these services, although I do not interact there quite as much (listed in decreasing order of usage):


    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer: This newsletter is a personal project I’ve been doing since 2007, several years before I joined the Internet Society in 2011. While I may at times mention information or activities from the Internet Society, all viewpoints are my personal opinion and do not represent any formal positions or views of the Internet Society. This is just me, saying some of the things on my mind.

  • AVFTCN 022 – The Global Chokepoint Where SpaceX Is The Only Consistent Launch Provider

    5:09 am

    We’re in this really strange place where we have amazing ambitions for space, including launching 100s of thousands of satellites into Low Earth Orbit (LEO), and yet at this moment in November 2023, we have only ONE single launch provider – globally – that is consistently launching rockets – SpaceX!

    If you have been following me on social channels, you have no doubt seen that I often post about the emerging world of LEO-based Internet access. SpaceX’s Starlink, Eutelsat OneWeb, Amazon’s Project Kuiper… and many more. At the Internet Society, I led a team in 2022 that developed a paper looking at the overall industry. I also co-authored an article in the September 2023 Internet Protocol Journal about LEO satellites for Internet access.

    I’m increasingly asked for commentary about LEO systems, and when people ask me what is the biggest challenge, my answer these days is: getting the satellites into space! (Unless you are SpaceX (or the government of China).)

    We are in this weird place where all the other major launch providers are in between rocket versions. Consider:

    • United Launch Alliance (ULA) – Historically NASA’s big launch provider (and a company formed by Boeing and Lockheed Martin), their new Vulcan Centaur has been delayed for years and may finally launch for the first time in December 2023.
    • Arianespace – Europe’s big launch provider has had many years of delays with their Ariane 6 that has been in the works since 2014. It might finally fly in 2024 (and it’s all a financial mess).
    • Blue Origin – Jeff Bezos’ rocket company has yet to launch its New Glenn rocket that would bring satellites to space. It’s been delayed and now looks for its first launch later in 2024.

    Both ULA and Arianespace are running out of their previous rockets and need these new versions to start launching more satellites.

    The Russians used to be a major launch provider with their Soyuz rockets, but ever since they invaded Ukraine few people will launch with them.

    There are a whole bunch of smaller companies such as Rocket Labs that are starting to launch more. And some of the national space agencies such as India’s ISRO and Japan’s JAXA are seeking to do more with providing launch services.

    But no one is currently able to come close to matching SpaceX in terms of consistently launching rockets!

    Here’s a chart I used in some recent presentations showing their 14 Starlink launches in August and September 2023. Some of these are only a day or two apart!

    A table showing a list of 14 rocket launches by SpaceX in August and September 2023

    And these are only the Starlink launches. SpaceX is also launching a bunch of other payloads. As of October 23, SpaceX had launched 77 rockets in 2023!

    Nobody comes close! (Except the Chinese government, who are off doing their own thing.) SpaceX is doing amazing work to launch so often and so successfully.

    So when Amazon is trying to get their 3,000+ satellites into LEO for their Project Kuiper, they went out in April 2022 and signed up for 83 launches with ULA, Arianespace, and Blue Origin (using an “anyone-but-SpaceX” approach). But none of these companies are launching their new rockets yet! (In October 2023, Amazon finally got their two prototype Kuiper satellites into orbit using an older ULA Atlas V rocket, of which there are still a few remaining.)

    And so SpaceX has essentially a monopoly on commercial launches right now. And they are launching satellites for pretty much everyone, including competitors. (OneWeb used SpaceX for their final launches.)

    Everyone else is of course trying to catch up, and a zillion smaller startups are looking to get into the launch game from “spaceports” all around the globe.

    Meanwhile, SpaceX just keeps on launching… and launching… and launching…. (In fact, they have a Starlink launch planned for tonight.)

    For competitive and resilience reasons, and because we’ll need a LOT more launch capacity to fulfill all the fevered LEO dreams, I do hope we see the other companies getting their rockets online soon. We’ll see!

    But in the meantime, if I’m asked what the biggest challenge is for (non-SpaceX) LEO systems… it’s getting them actually launched!

    See you soon,
    Dan

    P.S. There’s a whole other conversation that can be had about whether all of these rocket launches are actually good for our climate, the environment, etc. Thankfully we’re starting to see some academic papers and reports looking into all of that. But that’s a topic for another day…


    Connect

    The best place to connect with me these days is:

    You can also find all the content I’m creating at:

    If you use Mastodon or another Fediverse system, you should be able to follow this newsletter by searching for “@crowsnest.danyork.com

    You can also connect with me at these services, although I do not interact there quite as much (listed in decreasing order of usage):


    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer: This newsletter is a personal project I’ve been doing since 2007, several years before I joined the Internet Society in 2011. While I may at times mention information or activities from the Internet Society, all viewpoints are my personal opinion and do not represent any formal positions or views of the Internet Society. This is just me, saying some of the things on my mind.

  • AVFTCN 021 – Moving Away From Substack

    👋 Hi! It’s Dan York. And I wanted to let you all know that you’ll be getting this newsletter from a different email system now.

    I’ve decided to move away from Substack and instead host this newsletter on WordPress.com . Substack may be a fine platform for people looking to host a commercial newsletter…

    … but I’m not looking to do that.

    All I want to do is share my views on the future with those of you who want to come along for the ride. And I found the amount of nagging dialog boxes on Substack to be REALLY annoying! It’s not a great user experience, in my opinion, and I don’t want to annoy you all. So let’s try this!

    IF YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHY YOU ARE RECEIVING THIS EMAIL, you probably signed up way back at the beginning of this newsletter in the 2000s. Please feel free to just hit the UNSUBSCRIBE link at the bottom of the message! No hard feelings.. I get it. You haven’t heard from me in 3 years other than a message back in February. Life changes.

    As part of this change I’m also exploring a new way to write these newsletters. Every morning our wonderful miniature poodle wakes us up around 4:30 or 5:00am. She’s 16 years old and highly unlikely to change (we’ve tried!!) and so I just roll with it. After I’ve let her out to do her thing, I usually just sit with a cup of tea and catch up on social networks (Mastodon for me), Techmeme, Memeorandum, and other similar sites.

    Instead of just being a passive consumer of info, I’m thinking I may start to turn that time into a time of creation. I’m an early morning person and I’m wide awake once I’m up.

    I’m also trying Automattic’s WordPress and JetPack apps on my iPad to see if that will help me get more into the routine of sending these out.

    So we’ll see! You may start getting more of these messages coming at you.

    Meanwhile, if you are looking to follow me or connect with me, the best place these days is Mastodon: danyork@mastodon.social

    See you soon,
    Dan


    Connect

    The best place to connect with me these days is:

    You can also find all the content I’m creating at:

    If you use Mastodon or another Fediverse system, you should be able to follow this newsletter by searching for “@crowsnest.danyork.com

    You can also connect with me at these services, although I do not interact there quite as much (listed in decreasing order of usage):


    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer: This newsletter is a personal project I’ve been doing since 2007, several years before I joined the Internet Society in 2011. While I may at times mention information or activities from the Internet Society, all viewpoints are my personal opinion and do not represent any formal positions or views of the Internet Society. This is just me, saying some of the things on my mind.

  • AVFTCN 019 – Tap, tap, tap… is this thing on?

    Returning from a seven-year hiatus with a new plan – and a new platform…

    Tap… tap.. tap… is this thing on??

    It’s been a while… 7 years, in fact… since I last climbed up into the virtual crow’s nest, stared out at the horizon to look at what is coming, and sent out an email newsletter. MUCH has changed. We’ve sighted some amazing new things – and we’ve hit some massive icebergs like this global pandemic!

    [On that note, I hope you are doing okay during these crazy times. So far I and my family are thankfully okay, but friends have been hospitalized, everyone is anxious, and the path out of all of this is unclear.]

    IF YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHY YOU ARE RECEIVING THIS EMAIL, you probably signed up way back at the beginning of this newsletter. Please feel free to just hit the UNSUBSCRIBE link at the bottom of the message! No hard feelings.. I get it. You haven’t heard from me in 7 years. Life changes.

    For those who’d like to continue reading, THIS ISSUE WILL BE DIFFERENT from what you receive next time. I want to catch you all up on a bit of what has been going on, and I want to provide some links to some of the things I’ve been doing.

    Please watch for the NEXT issue (assuming you stick around, and I hope you do!) to get more of a flavor of the new plan. So… what is that plan?


    The New Plan!

    I decided to bring this email newsletter back because:

    1. Having been online since the 1980’s, I’ve seen the evolution of the Internet from those early services, and I’ve met many remarkable people along the way.

    2. I have this amazing opportunity of working for the Internet Society and meeting some truly incredible people doing amazing things to change the world.

    I want to share those insights with you.

    (Plus, if I’m honest, there’s a “3. I wanted a distraction from the anxiety of the pandemic!”)

    In addition, I’ll bring you some of the stories and links that show the edge of what is possible – and also that concern me. I’ll also share some of the tools and services I’m finding helpful.

    I’m trying out Substack as a way of publishing. In part because they offer an integrated way to have both email and an audio podcast. We’ll see. This is an experiment. Expect it to be bumpy for a little while.

    My goal is to send this out probably monthly (but we’ll see – it could be more often) and to keep it short and *focused* on a topic. I want you to be able to read this from wherever and on whatever device. And I want it to be informative and helpful.

    THIS time, it will be a longer issue to mention some of the things I’ve been doing that I think may be of interest to readers.

    BUT FIRST…


    Emergency Response Grant Programme for COVID-19

    If you have an idea for how to use the Internet to improve people’s lives during this global COVID-19 pandemic, the Internet Society Foundation will award grants to non-profit organizations. The deadline to apply is May 17! Please share this information with any non-profits you are connected to – in these unprecedented times, the Foundation would like to help people use the Internet to improve people’s lives.

    Learn more

    (I am not directly connected to the Internet Society Foundation, but it is connected to my employer, the Internet Society.)


    Help an Extrovert Out!

    And a request… DO YOU NEED A GUEST for a podcast or webinar or live stream? While I completely support the need for us to stay at home to fight this virus, it is a bit challenging for someone who loves to teach and speak and engage in conversations… and who feeds off of interaction with other people! 😀 I’d love to join your show, event, or stream to talk about… the Internet (how it works, infrastructure, standards, whatever!) … curling… live streaming… security… DNS… writing… VoIP… markdown… books… IPv6… networking… WordPress… podcasting… Vermont… Wikipedia… or……… just ask!

    Email me!


    Now… on to some of my activities over the past 7 years..

    My podcast on SoundCloud – The Dan York Report

    Since 2013, I’ve been publishing periodic podcast episodes of “The Dan York Report” at https://soundcloud.com/danyork It’s a mixture of technology, Internet topics, observations on society, and personal reflections. Sometimes I just really like the medium of audio versus writing – and it’s also a way to experiment and try out various systems related to podcasting. Some of you might enjoy my three-part series about what I’ve learned in 15+ years of remote working. Of course, that was pre-pandemic, when we could actually work from coffee shops. I also recently recorded an episode about taking virtual coffee breaks using Slack and Zoom. I have a long queue of episodes to record. You are welcome to join in the listening…

    Follow me on SoundCloud

    (P.S. I also still contribute monthly “tech reports” into the For Immediate Release (FIR) podcast… 14 years and counting!)


    Livestreaming on Twitch.tv – to edit Wikipedia and produce podcasts

    As an extrovert, one of my ways of adjusting to not traveling and speaking has been to experiment with Twitch, the massive Amazon-owned platform where millions of people watch other people… mostly playing games! I’m not much of a gamer, but I’ve been exploring the whole “IRL” / “Creative” section of Twitch where people are teaching courses, playing music, recording podcasts live, giving tutorials, … or just live streaming their coding work. It’s been absolutely fascinating – there is SO MUCH happening on Twitch beyond gaming.

    It’s also been fascinating to watch some of the Twitch gamers – as some are really pushing what can be done with livestreaming. (And a good bit of it done with the open source OBS Studio.)

    My own streaming has mostly revolved around either showing people how I edit pages on Wikipedia, or showing the process I go through to plan, produce, and record podcast episodes. I also have ideas about streaming “Watch Dan try to remember how to program in python after 10 years away 😏” and perhaps some other tutorials with Markdown and GitHub. Granted, none of this will bring 1,000s of viewers… but it’s all part of the experiment.

    I have a schedule on my Twitch page that I try to follow. I’m usually streaming every day around 11:00am-ish US Eastern for a short period. Please do follow me if you are also on Twitch. I would also like to know what YOU might be doing with Twitch. Are you streaming anything interesting or unusual? Have you found it useful? Or have you thought of it only for gaming?

    Follow me on Twitch


    A Subreddit Focused on Internet Access and Infrastructure

    A few years ago I noticed that I couldn’t find any place that listed links and stories about how the Internet was actually put together. There were many sites about Internet technologies, Internet security stories, and Internet companies … but nothing about the plumbing that holds it all together. So, being interested in learning more about Reddit at the time, I created a subreddit, r/InternetAccess, and started posting links there to some of the stories I found. Submarine cables, satellites, Internet exchange points (IXPs), 5G, community networks, research… and even Internet access via balloons!

    It’s been going for several years now, and if you are interested in this topic and use Reddit (or want to learn more about it) please do subscribe and join in. I would welcome a few more people contributing articles, and do welcome any comments and conversations. I think it’s important to help spread the word about all the great work people are doing to connect the 47% of the world that doesn’t yet have Internet access!

    Subscribe to r/InternetAccess


    Open Standards Everywhere

    Some big personal news for me in 2020 was that my role at the Internet Society changed and I became the project lead for a new “Open Standards Everywhere” project where we are working to help people operating websites make the sites more available and more secure by using the latest open Internet standards.

    We are aiming to explain in plain language a whole alphabet soup of technologies – IPv6, TLS, DNSSEC, HSTS, HTTP/2 and even more. You can see where we have started in a GitHub repository – and more info will be coming soon. I wrote a blog post about the project back in January that gives some info.

    Learn more and get involved


    No, the Internet Will NOT Fail Due to COVID-19

    With everyone shifting to working and learning and doing EVERYTHING at home, there has perhaps naturally been a flurry of hyped articles about how “the Internet is going to collapse with everyone working from home!

    Of course that’s NOT what is happening. The global “network of networks” we call the capital-I Internet was designed in a way that this all works.

    My Internet Society colleague David Belson wrote about this back in February “Is the Internet Resilient Enough to Withstand Coronavirus?” and followed up with a new post today (May 13, 2020), “The Internet Is Resilient Enough to Withstand Coronavirus – But There’s a Catch”.

    The “catch” is one that Vint Cerf and David Isenberg also hit on in their piece: “The internet isn’t broken — but its inequalities need to be fixed”

    As David wrote, the network of networks hasn’t failed, but we’ve seen a catastrophic failure in some regions to make “last mile” broadband connectivity widely accessible and affordable.

    THAT is what we collectively need to fix.

    The COVID-19 pandemic has shown us that the Internet is a lifeline we are all depending upon – but what if you can’t access the Internet? or can’t afford to?


    Whew… you made it all the way here! Next time it SHOULD be shorter.

    Links

    A few links for those of you who made it this far:

    That’s all, folks!

    And that is the end of this super-long view from the crow’s nest.. looking mostly down at the ship I’m sailing on. I’ll be back next time with some actual gazing through that spyglass out at the horizon!

    In the meantime, you can find more of my writing and audio and the links above, or at my own danyork.me site. I also welcome email replies or connections through other channels.

    I hope you all are healthy and safe – and that you stay that way in the weeks and months ahead. Best wishes to you all!

    Until next time!

    P.S. The header artwork of the person in the crow’s nest was drawn by my daughter Chloe!


    Connect

    The best place to connect with me these days is:

    You can also find all the content I’m creating at:

    If you use Mastodon or another Fediverse system, you should be able to follow this newsletter by searching for “@crowsnest.danyork.com

    You can also connect with me at these services, although I do not interact there quite as much (listed in decreasing order of usage):


    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer: This newsletter is a personal project I’ve been doing since 2007, several years before I joined the Internet Society in 2011. While I may at times mention information or activities from the Internet Society, all viewpoints are my personal opinion and do not represent any formal positions or views of the Internet Society. This is just me, saying some of the things on my mind.